We’ve just lived through the first 100 days of the 2nd Trump presidency.  On the equity market front there has been a lot of predictions and a lot of ups and downs. . . . However, as far as funeral service or Death Care goes, where are we and what can we expect going forward?

Let’s look at tariffs first.  So, I’ve known about tariffs and heard about them almost all of my adult life. . . . but, I really didn’t understand how they worked and what the larger-world effects on changing the status quo with them might mean.

Tariffs:

I’ve done some research and searched out some people who know much more than I do about them and here’s what I am beginning to think about tariffs and the Death Care industry.  Obviously, tariffs cannot be levied on professional services done within one country, so the vast majority of Death Care, especially funeral home professional service charges, will have nothing to do with tariffs.

What they could affect at some point in time are the costs of wholesale merchandise or supplies being brought into the United States for the Death Care providers.  The largest of those would probably be caskets and raw materials, or finished products, for monuments in the cemetery business.

Here’s what I’ve learned at this time about those products:

Caskets —  There are some caskets manufactured in China that have American distributors.  I’m under the assumption that these caskets come under the current tariffs on Chinese made goods which will raise the price upon entrance into the United States, more than likely making the price to the funeral home retailer of such higher.

I’m also under the assumption that probably more than 80% of caskets sold by North American funeral homes are either manufactured or assembled in the United States, Canada, or Mexico.  In general, at least at this time, these caskets should be under the existing USMCA (U.S., Mexico, Canada) trade agreement exemption.  According to this fact sheet from the White House, “This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff.”

Stone and Monuments —  According to some sources, a large percentage of raw stone and finished monuments used in the Death Care profession comes from China.  As mentioned above, I would expect that there are tariffs on these products from China at this time which will raise their price.  Another source tells me that India is also a large exporter of these products.  This article tells us that the United States is India’s largest trading partner but the U.S. buys twice as much from India as India buys from the United States.  India and the U.S. are in a 90-day pause on any increased tariffs and the article states, ” (the) US and India want to finalize an agreement by September or October to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030″.

The Economy:

I’ve worked in the Death Care profession, including my writing on it, for over 44 years now.  Most of that was as a funeral director on the front lines of funeral service.

In that time period I’ve heard all of the cliches about death, dying, and funerals.  While there is a perception that the economy does not affect this business, I think it does in a bigger way than most would believe.  I’ve seen what I call “funeral poverty” and how that situation plays out on the consumer and on the funeral home owner and his business.

With “funeral poverty” there simply is a group of client families where death hits them at just the wrong time.  It would be a time when they had little savings and little credit availability.  Those families, in my opinion, purchase less in the way of Death Care services and merchandise than they would have purchased had the death not hit the family at an inopportune economic time. . . . .Again, in my opinion, when this situation occurs within a family the services selected many times change from a traditional burial to a cremation with memorial service.

Is it possible that we are in a time period where we see an increase in “funeral poverty”?  If so, funeral homes can expect to see a loss of revenue per service as some families find themselves in a cash and credit crunch at the time of an unexpected death.

So, where is the economy at this point in time?  I think that question is really difficult to answer right now because of some of the mixed signals we get from economic indicators.  For instance, unemployment is low, but just the other day we received a negative GDP data report according to this article.  At the same time, consumer spending and investment activitity picked up. . . which would be positive indicators.

And to make things more mixed up, the chart below maintains that we had this negative GDP number because of increased imports simply to beat any tariffs that might be instituted.  The linked article says this about that situation, “Wednesday’s 0.3% annualized decline in GDP was driven by a surge in imports, as companies front-loaded orders to lock in lower prices ahead of the anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration. Imports, which increased at an annualized rate of 41.3% in the first quarter, are a subtraction to growth in the calculation of GDP and pulled the figure down by 5 percentage points for the quarter.”

So, when looking at the chart, do you believe the GDP fell because the “Economy is bad” or because of a “Pre-emptive purchase of supply chain” needs by retailers and/or manufacturers?

Quarter 1 2025 GDP Calcuations

To get you even more confused, companies like Starbucks, Chipotle, and Pizza Hut are reporting either decreased customer traffic or revenues for the quarter.  That is usually a sign that the consumer might be in one of the time periods where I suggest that “funeral poverty” is a situation for them.  Here are some articles on those situations:

Tom Anderson
Funeral Director Daily

Funeral Director Daily take:  I think we are living in some interesting economic times.  In just looking at two criteria — tariffs and GDP — it is difficult to tell what type of economic situation that we are in.  Add in the fight to keep the original Trump tax cuts in place or better, the role of inflation,  consumer spending, and the decisions the Federal Reserve needs to decide about interest rates and about the only thing that you can see at this time is that there is “no clarity” to the direction of our economy.

I’ll let you ponder all of  that as you go into the weekend.  Have a great weekend.

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